Thursday, 28 January 2010

Poland - To what extent will the economic crisis affect the Polish pharmaceutical market?

The effects of the crisis are expected to be minimal given the country’s economic structure.

Whilst many countries have entered recession as a result of the economic crises, Poland’s economy did not shrink in 2009. In fact, it was the only economy in the EU that avoided contraction. There are a number of reasons for this: Polish businesses tend to rely on their own resources rather than loans and have therefore been less affected by the constraints on lending since the crisis broke out; exports account for only 30% of GDP, compared with 66% in the Czech Republic and 69% in Hungary; and consumer spending has remained high.

Consequently, the impact on the Polish pharmaceutical market will be far less than in other countries of similar development in Central & Eastern Europe, such as Hungary. There will be less of a need to reduce spending on healthcare and the disposable income available for purchasing pharmaceuticals should remain steady, although unemployment is predicted to rise marginally in 2010, which may be detrimental to retail sales. The market will continue to be driven by high import growth and the increased demands on healthcare that are associated with the ageing population.

Further reading - A detailed review of the Polish pharmaceutical market is available from Espicom: The Pharmaceutical Market: Poland (published January 2010)

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